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The Monk's Chart This chart which was prepared many years ago by a Monk, shows when good and bad times have occurred and when they will occur again. Some outstanding dates were 1870 - the Franco-Prussian War - dear bread and scarcity of money in 1870, the Baring Crisis 1888-1890, 40 failures on the London Stock Exchange in 1888 to 1890, the American crisis of 1893, the South African War, 1899-1903, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904. 1915 speaks for itself, and so do 1931 and 1942. Recent recessions in the U.S. occurred in 1973-75, 1981-82, 1990-91 and 2000-2. The year 1999 was the peak of the high-tech boom and is shown at the top of the chart with the dismal down-turn indicated to last for 6 years to 2005. The current recessionary/deflationary leg may last till 2012! This chart is a useful form of guidance for business transactions. Certainly, there is a case for giving it consideration. But in all transactions in commodities and securities there are individual factors which have to be taken into consideration. Sometimes those individual factors may go against the general trend. Legend:
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Years in
which
panics
have
occurred
and will
occur
again:
Their
cycles are
16, 18 and
20 years.
Years
of good
times,
high
prices and
the time
to sell
stocks and
values of
all kinds:
Their
cycles are
8, 9 and
10 years
Years
of hard
times, low
prices,
and a good
time to
buy stocks
and goods
and hold
until the
boom
reaches
the years
of good
times:
Their
cycles are
7, 11 and
9 years.
